Working Papers
Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time, Baumeister, C., F. Huber, T. K. Lee and F. Ravazzolo (2024).
Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing, Lorusso M., F. Ravazzolo and C. Udroiu (2024).
Is the Price Cap for Gas Useful? Evidence from European Countries, Ravazzolo, F. and L. Rossini (2023).
Renewable Sources and Short-To Mid-Term Electricity Price Forecasting, Bashiri Behmiri, N. C. Fezzi and F. Ravazzolo (2023).
Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies, Bj?rnland, H.C., R. Casarin, M. Lorusso and F. Ravazzolo (2023).
Global money supply and energy and non-energy commodity prices: A MS-TV-VAR approach, Grassi, S., F. Ravazzolo, J. Vespignani and G. Vocalelli (2023).
Dominant Drivers of National Inflation, Ditzen, J. and F. Ravazzolo (2022).
Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications, Iacopini, M., F. Ravazzolo and L. Rossini (2022).
A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry, Boni, S. and F. Ravazzolo (2022).
Identification of Labour Market Shocks, Diwambuena, J. and F. Ravazzolo (2021).
Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models, Grassi, S., M. Lorusso and F. Ravazzolo (2021).
Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?, Banbura, M., F. Brenna, J. Parades and F. Ravazzolo (2021).
Commodity Futures and Forecasting
Commodity Currencies, Ravazzolo, F., T. Sveen and S. K. Zahiri (2016).
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: the Role of Fundamentals with Short-lived Predictive Content,
Foroni, C., F. Ravazzolo and P. J. Ribeiro (2015).
Term Structure Forecasting using Macro Factors
and Forecast Combination, De Pooter, M., F. Ravazzolo and D. van Dijk (2010).
Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates,
De Pooter M., F. Ravazzolo and D. van Dijk (2007).
Evaluating Real-Time
Forecasts in Real-Time, Van Dijk, D., P.H. Franses and F. Ravazzolo (2007).
Journal Articles
Robust estimation for Threshold Autoregressive Moving-Average models, Goracci, G., D. Ferrari, S. Giannerini and F. Ravazzolo (2024), Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Working paper version.
Understanding relationships with the aggregate zonal imbalance using copulas, Durante F., A. Gatto and F. Ravazzolo (2024), Statistical Applications & Methods, 33, 513-554.
Corporate CDS spreads from the Eurozone crisis to COVID-19 pandemic: A Bayesian Markov switching model, Baltodano Lopez, O.A., G. Bulfone, R. Casarin and F. Ravazzolo (2024), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 28(2), 271-292.
Working paper version.
The COVID-19 pandemic and family business performance, Miroshnychenko, I., G. Vocalelli, A. De Massis, S. Grassi and F. Ravazzolo (2024), Small Business Econincs, 62, 213-241.
A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency, Asimakopoulos, S., M. Lorusso and F. Ravazzolo (2023), Review of Economic Dynamics, 51, 1012-1035. Working paper version.
Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand, Galdi, G., R. Casarin, D. Ferrari, C. Fezzi and F. Ravazzolo (2023), Energy Economics, 126, 107006. Working paper version.
Exploring the Antecedents of Consumer Confidence through Semantic Network Analysis of Online News, Fronzetti Colladon, A., F. Grippa, B. Guardabascio and F. Ravazzolo (2023), Scientific Reports, 13, 11785. Working paper version.
Forecasting Regional GDPs: a Comparison with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models, Billé, A.G, A. Tomelleri and F. Ravazzolo (2023), Spatial Economic Analysis, 18(4), 530-551. Working paper version. Link to programs.
Are Low Frequency Macroeconomic Variables Important for High Frequency Electricity Prices?, Foroni, C., F. Ravazzolo and L. Rossini (2023), Economic Modelling, 120, 106-160. Working paper version.
A Flexible Predictive Density Combination for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods, Casarin, R, S. Grassi, F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2023), Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming. Working paper version.
Incorporating air temperature into mid-term electricity load forecasting models using time-series regressions and neural networks, Bashiri Behmiri, N., C. Fezzi and F. Ravazzolo (2023), Energy, 278, 127831.
Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices, Gianfreda, A., F. Ravazzolo and L. Rossini (2023), Oxford Bullettin of Economics and Statistics,
85(3), 545-573. Working paper version.
Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting, Iacopini, M., F. Ravazzolo and L. Rossini (2023), Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 42(2), 482-496. Working paper version.
Forecasting Electricity Prices with Expert, Linear and Non-Linear Models, Billé, A.G, A. Gianfreda, F. Del Grosso and F. Ravazzolo (2023), International Journal of Forecasting, 39, 570-586. Working paper version.
Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID-19 crisis, Fronzetti Colladon, A. , S. Grassi, F. Ravazzolo and F. Violante (2022), Journal of Forecasting,
42(5), 1187-1204. Working paper version.
A Multivariate Dependence Analysis for Electricity Prices, Demand and Renewable Energy Sources, Durante, F, A. Gianfreda, F. Ravazzolo, L. Rossini (2022), Information Science, 590, 74-89. Working paper version.
Short-term hydropower optimization driven by innovative time-adapting econometric model, Avesani, D, A. Zanfei, N. Di Marco, A. Galletti, F. Ravazzolo, M. Righetti and M. Bruno (2022), Applied Energy, 310, 118-510.
Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects, Agudze, K. M., M. Billio, R. Casarin and F. Ravazzolo (2022), Journal of Econometrics, 230(2), 281-298. Working paper version.
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach, Ferrari, D., F. Ravazzolo and J. Vespignani (2021), Energy Economics, 98, 105268. Working paper version.
Contagion between Real Estate and Financial Markets: A Bayesian Quantile-on-Quantile Approach, Caporin, M., R. Gupta and F. Ravazzolo (2021), North Ameircan Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 1-12. Working paper version.
Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration, Gianfreda, A., F. Ravazzolo and L. Rossini (2020), International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 974-986. Working paper version.
A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models under Misspecification, Casarin, R., F. Corradin, F. Ravazzolo and D. Sartore (2020), Advances in Decision Science, 24(2), 1-37.Working paper version
A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity,
Ravazzolo, F. and J.L. Vespignani (2020), Canadian Journal of Economics, 53(2), 743-766. Working paper version.
The Bank-Sovereign Nexus: Evidence from a non-Bailout Episode, Caporin, M., G. Natvik, F. Ravazzolo and P. Santucci de Magistris (2019), Journal of Empirical Finance, 53, 181-196.Working paper version.
Identification of
financial factors in economic fluctuations, Furlanetto, F., F. Ravazzolo and S. Sarferaz (2019), Economic Journal, 129(617), 311-337. Working paper version.
Optimism in Financial Markets: Stock Market Returns and Investor Sentiments, Limongi Concetto, C. and F. Ravazzolo (2019), Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12, 85.
Working paper version.
Forecasting Cryptocurrencies under Model and Parameter Instability, Catania, L., S. Grassi and F. Ravazzolo (2019), International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 485-501.
Working paper version.
Uncertainty Through the Lenses of a Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model, Casarin, R., C. Foroni, M. Marcellino and F. Ravazzolo (2018), Annals of Applied Statistics, 12(4), 2559-2586.
Working paper version.
Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions, Bassetti, F., R. Casarin and F. Ravazzolo (2018), Journal of American Statistical Association, 113(522), 675-685. Working paper version.
Measuring Sovereign Contagion
in Europe, Caporin, M., L. Pelizzon, F. Ravazzolo and R. Rigobon (2018), Journal of Financial Stability, 34, 150-181. Working paper version.
Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns, Foroni, C., F. Ravazzolo and B. Sadaba (2018), Journal of International Money and Finance , 81, 241-264. Working paper version.
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment,
Aastveit, K.A., F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2018), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 36(1), 131-145.
Working paper version.
Dissecting the 2007-2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic
Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?, Bianchi, D., M. Guidolin and F. Ravazzolo (2018), Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(1), 34?62. Working paper version.
Link to programs.
Forecaster's Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation,
Lerch, S., T. Thorarinsdottir, F. Ravazzolo and T. Gneiting (2017), Statistical Science, 32(1), 106-127. Working paper version.
Forecasting GDP with Global Components. This time is different,
Bjørnland, H.C., F. Ravazzolo and L.A. Thorusrud (2017), International Journal of Forecasting, 33(1), 153-173.
Working paper version.
Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section,
Bianchi, D., M. Guidolin and F. Ravazzolo (2017), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 35(1), 110-129.
Working paper version.
Link to programs.
Density forecasts with MIDAS models,
Aastveit, K.A., C. Foroni and F. Ravazzolo (2016), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(4), 783?801. Working paper version.
On the Correlation between Commodity
and Equity Returns: Implications for Portfolio Allocation, Lombardi, M. and F. Ravazzolo (2016), Journal of Commodity markets, 2(1), 45-57. Working paper version.
Sample of press coverage: WSJ,
FT,
Reuters,
The Telegraph. Link to programs.
Oil-price Density Forecasts of US GDP,
Ravazzolo, F. and P. Rothman (2016), Studies of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4), 441-453. Working paper version.
A discussion on: Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations, and Forecast Ranking, by W. Ehm, T. Gneiting, A. Jordan, and A. Krueger, Casarin, R. and Ravazzolo, F., (2016), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 78(3), 538-539.
Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions, Casarin, R., G. Mantoan and F. Ravazzolo (2016), Econometrics, 4(1), 17.
Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles, Aastveit, K.A., A.S. Jore and F. Ravazzolo (2016), International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 283-292.
Working paper version.
Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations, Pettenuzzo, D. and F. Ravazzolo (2016),
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(7), 1312-1332. Working paper version.
Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Model, Billio, M., R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2016),
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(7), 1352-1370. Working paper version.
Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts,
Kruger, F., T. Clark and F. Ravazzolo (2015), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, forthcoming. Working paper version.
Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination:
The Deco Matlab Toolbox, Casarin, R., S. Grassi, F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2015), Journal of Statistical Software, 68(3).
Working paper version. Link to DeCo webpage
The Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Autoregressive Models with Alternative Specifications of Time-Varying Volatility
, T. Clark and F. Ravazzolo (2015), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(4), 551-575. Working paper version.
Forecasting the Intraday Market Price of Money, A. Monticini and F. Ravazzolo (2014), Journal of Empirical Finance, 39, 304-315.
Working paper version.
Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Disaggregate Survey Data, Martinsen K., F. Ravazzolo and F. Wulfsberg (2014),
International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 65?77. Working paper version.
Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles,
Ravazzolo, F. and S. P. Vahey (2014), Studies of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 18(4), 367?381.
Working paper version.
Time-varying Combinations of Predictive
Densities using Nonlinear Filtering,
Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk (2013), Journal of Econometrics, 177(2), 213?232.
Working paper version.
Alternative Econometric
Implementations of Multi-Factor Models of the US Financial Markets, Guidolin M., F. Ravazzolo and
A. Donato Tortora (2013), Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53(2), 87-111.
Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World, Groen, J.J.J., R. Paap and F. Ravazzolo (2013),
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 31(1), 29-44. Online appendix.
Working paper version.
Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S.Real Estate: Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns,
Guidolin M., F. Ravazzolo and A. Donato Tortora (2013), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Working paper version.
Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions,
Billio, M., R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo F. and H.K. van Dijk (2012), Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52(4), 402-412.
Working paper version.
Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,
Ravazzolo F. and P. Rothman (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(2-3), 449-463.
Working paper version.
Backtesting Value-at-Risk Using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons - a Comment on the
"Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-horizon Bounds" by A.J. patton and A. Timmermann,
Hoogerheide L., F. Ravazzolo, H.K. van Dijk (2012),
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30(1).
Working paper version.
The power of Weather, Huurman C., F. Ravazzolo and C. Zhou (2012),
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 56, 3793-3807.
Why Do People Place Lower Weight on
Advice Far from Their Own Initial Opinion?, Ravazzolo F. and ?. R?island (2011), Economics Letters, 112(1), 63-66.
Combining Inflation Density Forecasts,
Kascha C. and F. Ravazzolo (2010), Journal of Forecasting, 29, 231-250.
Working paper version.
Link to programs.
Forecast Accuracy and
Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time-varying Weights, Hoogerheide L., R. Kelijn, F. Ravazzolo, H.K. van Dijk
and M. Verbeek (2010), Journal of Forecasting, 29, 251-269.
Working paper version.
Ravazzolo F., H. K. van Dijk and M. Verbeek (2007) working paper.
Bayesian Near-boundary Analysis
in Basic Macroeconomic Time-series Models, De Pooter M., F. Ravazzolo, R. Segers and H.K. van Dijk (2008),
Advances in Econometrics, 23, 331-432.
Working paper version.
Link to programs.
Book contributions
Density Forecasting, Bassetti, F., R. Casarin and F. Ravazzolo (2020), in Fuleky, P. (eds) Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Area of Big Data, Springer. Working paper version.
The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics, Aastveit, K.A., J. Mitchell, F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2018), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, forthcoming. Working paper version.
Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time?Series, Catania, L., S. Grassi and F. Ravazzolo (2018), In: Corazza M., Durb?n M., Gran? A., Perna C., Sibillo M. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. Springer. Working paper version.
Macro Modeling with Many Models, Bache, I. W., J. Mitchell, F. Ravazzolo, and S. P. Vahey (2010),
in D. Cobham, ?. Eitrheim, S. Gerlach, and J. Qvigstad (Eds.), Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects ,
Cambridge University Press, 398-418.
Working paper version.
Bayesian model averaging in the presence of
structural breaks, Ravazzolo F., R. Paap, D. van Dijk and P.H. Franses (2008), in M. Wohar and D. Rapach (eds.),
Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty - Frontiers of Economics and Globalization Series Vol. 3,
Emerald Publishing Group, 561-594.
Working paper version.
Proceedings and Other Publications
Probabilistic Calibration of Predictive Distributions,
Casarin, R., Gneiting T. and Ravazzolo, F., (2014), in Proceedings of the
XLVII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Cagliari, CUEC.
Bayesian combinations of stock price predictions with an application to the Amsterdam Exchange index,
Billio, M., R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo and H.K. van Dijk (2011), Medium for Econometric Applications.
Working paper version.
Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with
Disaggregate Ensembles, Ravazzolo F. and S. P. Vahey (2009), Proceedings of RBA 2009 Conference, 178-195.
Books
Bayesian Econometrics,
Bernardi M., S. Grassi and F. Ravazzolo, MDPI AG.
Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging,
Ravazzolo F., Tinbergen Institute Research Series 415.